Please note: TradeSports.com has halted trading on these contracts. Thus, these are the final results.

Of interest to some: Archives of this site are available here.
The data which has been used to make these projections is available here, in a 1.3mb tab-separated values text file
Individual date/time data sets can be downloaded (in TSV format) Here.
An animated map, displaying the electoral map below as it was on each day from the 10th of August through November 2nd can be viewed here.
Congratulations to Mr. Bush and his supporters, and thank you all for your interest.

The Map
Summary
Winner: No Projection (No Majority)
Last Update: help
Bush EVs: 254
Kerry EVs: 252
Unprojected EVs: 32
National EV-weighted Bid Price Drift: help Kerry +2.05
Battle Ground EV-weighted Bid Price Drift: help Kerry 0.45
Expected Bush EVs: help 269
Expected Kerry EVs: help 269
24-hour Volume: help 17277
  view options
State Winner Bid Price Prev. Bid Price Bid Price Change EVs EV-weighted change 24-hour Volume
1 ALABAMA Bush 95.20 95.10 0.1 9 0.009 0
2 ALASKA Bush 95.00 96.00 -1 3 -0.03 20
3 ARIZONA Bush 91.20 88.00 3.2 10 0.32 709
4 ARKANSAS Bush 81.10 83.50 -2.4 6 -0.144 363
5 CALIFORNIA Kerry 3.10 2.70 0.4 55 0.22 136
6 COLORADO Bush 76.00 74.00 2 9 0.18 1000
7 CONNECTICUT Kerry 1.10 0.60 0.5 7 0.035 332
8 DC Kerry 0.10 0.10 0 3 0 12
9 DELAWARE Kerry 5.20 5.40 -0.2 3 -0.006 224
10 FLORIDA Bush 55.10 59.50 -4.4 27 -1.188 1000
11 GEORGIA Bush 97.00 95.10 1.9 15 0.285 46
12 HAWAII Kerry 26.10 21.00 5.1 4 0.204 1273
13 IDAHO Bush 96.10 99.40 -3.3 4 -0.132 0
14 ILLINOIS Kerry 2.10 3.00 -0.9 21 -0.189 262
15 INDIANA Bush 95.40 96.00 -0.6 11 -0.066 8
16 IOWA No Projection 50.00 51.00 -1 7 -0.07 671
17 KANSAS Bush 96.10 96.00 0.1 6 0.006 5
18 KENTUCKY Bush 95.20 96.20 -1 8 -0.08 23
19 LOUISIANA Bush 95.00 95.00 0 9 0 38
20 MAINE Kerry 1.00 7.60 -6.6 4 -0.264 265
21 MARYLAND Kerry 2.00 4.30 -2.3 10 -0.23 109
22 MASSACHUSETTS Kerry 0.40 0.40 0 12 0 5
23 MICHIGAN Kerry 17.80 24.10 -6.3 17 -1.071 0
24 MINNESOTA Kerry 23.20 35.50 -12.3 10 -1.23 1000
25 MISSISSIPPI Bush 97.00 95.00 2 6 0.12 10
26 MISSOURI Bush 87.10 83.40 3.7 11 0.407 631
27 MONTANA Bush 98.00 97.00 1 3 0.03 5
28 NEBRASKA Bush 95.30 95.00 0.3 5 0.015 17
29 NEVADA Bush 74.10 74.00 0.1 5 0.005 68
30 NEWHAMPSHIRE Kerry 30.50 31.00 -0.5 4 -0.02 455
31 NEWJERSEY Kerry 10.10 11.00 -0.9 15 -0.135 1000
32 NEWMEXICO No Projection 55.00 63.00 -8 5 -0.4 2000
33 NEWYORK Kerry 1.90 1.40 0.5 31 0.155 23
34 NORTHCAROLINA Bush 92.30 91.00 1.3 15 0.195 250
35 NORTHDAKOTA Bush 96.10 95.00 1.1 3 0.033 35
36 OHIO No Projection 50.10 50.00 0.1 20 0.02 2000
37 OKLAHOMA Bush 95.20 97.40 -2.2 7 -0.154 3
38 OREGON Kerry 8.20 11.60 -3.4 7 -0.238 91
39 PENNSYLVANIA Kerry 26.00 25.00 1 21 0.21 1000
40 RHODEISLAND Kerry 0.40 0.40 0 4 0 1
41 SOUTHCAROLINA Bush 95.40 95.00 0.4 8 0.032 65
42 SOUTHDAKOTA Bush 96.20 95.00 1.2 3 0.036 17
43 TENNESSEE Bush 95.00 92.50 2.5 11 0.275 117
44 TEXAS Bush 96.00 96.00 0 34 0 3
45 UTAH Bush 96.00 95.50 0.5 5 0.025 2
46 VERMONT Kerry 0.40 0.20 0.2 3 0.006 0
47 VIRGINIA Bush 91.50 87.10 4.4 13 0.572 534
48 WASHINGTON Kerry 5.90 7.00 -1.1 11 -0.121 185
49 WESTVIRGINIA Bush 89.50 85.00 4.5 5 0.225 264
50 WISCONSIN Kerry 44.10 43.10 1 10 0.1 1000
51 WYOMING Bush 95.20 95.20 0 3 0 0

The Source

TradeSports Exchange Ltd is an online marketplace that trades contracts on various assertions, including contracts on political races. Its brick and mortar location is in Dublin Ireland. It is similar to a sports betting website but operates more like a futures market. The data for this projection comes from the state-by-state contracts for the assertion "George W. Bush to win this state in the November 2004 Election." A point costs $0.10 and a winning contract pays $10. In other words, the results depicted here are the collective judgments of a nation of bettors who are willing to put their money where their mouth is.

The Methodology

In this analysis, the following assumptions are made by default:

  • A bid price of 0-45 is a bid for Kerry
  • A bid price of 55-100 is a bid for Bush
  • A bid price of 45-55 is considered neutral and cannot be projected

    Each of these bounds are configurable. Choose the "View Options" link in the "Summary" table to set your own parameters. The electoral vote-weighted bid price is computed by multiplying the quotient of bid price / 100 by the state's total electoral votes. The national electoral vote-weighted bid price drift is the 24-hour change in the sum of the EV-weighted bid price for all states. Battle ground electoral vote weighted bid price drift is the same as the national EV-weighted bid price drift, except this figure is only calculated for states which fall within the (user-defined, or default) neutrality bounds.

    If you have any questions or notice any errors or innacuracies, please drop me a line

    To subscribe or unsubscribe to the daily e-mail update, click here.